Just two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
